Major Currencies update.

GBP/USD 1hr chart:

As we observe from the chart above; I was right to take profits this morning at the lows of the day as the major "risk-on" currencies once again attracted buyers at these levels.  My bearish view has now changed on Cable as a result and I have placed a Buy order ahead of the 50% retracement level from today's rally, with a fairly tight stop.  For similar reasons I am buying the EUR/USD pair below except this pair is not as over bought as GBP/USD in my opinion.   

EUR/USD Daily chart.

I have entered a long position in the EUR/USD pair following another steep rejection today of the lows seen at the foot of the recent trading range around 1.3030-80.  The pair have had numerous excuses to trade lower on the back of renewed concerns over the situation in Europe as well as a perceived reduction in dovish expectations with regard to Fed policy.  However, despite attempts to break out to the downside, buyers have persisted in supporting the pair at these levels.  I will be looking to see if we can use this short-term momentum to break the 1.32 barrier this week which would provide an good opportunity to add to this position.  Alternatively my stop is positioned at the lows of today to take advantage of any loss in momentum/ fundamentally driven sell off.

GBPUSD update

Cable is continuing to sell off this morning on the back of solid fundamentals eg.. uncertainty surrounding Greece and Portugal along with dollar strengthening after Friday's NFP data.  Technically we can see the lower trend channel has been broken and the market is due a subsequent correction after the persistent rally seen over the last 2 weeks.  Having already trailed my stop as seen above I will now be taking profits here (around the 1st Fib level which also coincides with some support levels across the board in other majors and commodities).  There has continued to be strong buying around any dips in risk esp. EUR/USD which continues to trade in a range.  For this reason I am happy to lock in profits here and will be looking to get back in on the short side if we see some strong price action signals in which case I will keep you posted.  If we see buyers step into EUR/USD pair again today (as we did on Thur & Fri) I will be looking to get long EUR instead.  As ever, watch this space.        

Follow-Up..

Will try and run this for a quick profit going into the weekend. Also trailed my stop-loss down. Will walk away from this now and see what happens 4NDPS2WCKQGA.

Unambiguously strong NFP figure!

Quick trade based on stronger than expected Non-Farms. Cable initial reaction was bullish before sellers quickly stepped in.  sold based on price-action.  fundamentally less chance of Quantitative Easing bullish for dollar.  watching this trade. further explanation will follow...

Trade Update: Cable & Aussie.

Hi All.  Just a quick note to confirm that I have scratched this GBP/USD trade (cut it just below my initial entry).  The reason for this is because it is obvious there is no real momentum currently in this market and everyone is clearly waiting for the Non-Farm results at 1.30pm.  There could be some good opportunities at these critical levels across all majors once the volume comes back into the market.  Once Non-farms is out we should get a good indication of where the strong hands in the market are positioning and I will be hoping for a big Non-farms spike and rejection to the upside as a invitation to get back in on the short side of this market again.

For the same reason I am closing my Aussie trade below for a very small profit and employing the wait and see approach as really I was hoping for more momentum.  

Trading Update.

Evening all from here in London.  So Looking over the markets we can see that it has been quite a choppy session with no real sustained momentum for either side. It would appear that investors are waiting on the side-lines until the Non-Farm Payrolls figure is out of the way tomorrow.  My Cable trade from yesterday is currently on-side and if the bottom trend channel breaks tomorrow with selling price-action then I will be looking to add some more.  Trading break-outs isn't something I would normally condone, but given the reasons that put me in the trade yesterday and the fact that I would be adding to a winning position if the breakout were to occur; I think it would be justified.  I will also trail my stop-loss order down to yesterday's high because if this breaks the picture changes. 

 I have also got my eye on the AUS/USD pair. I've put in a speculative short position as shown below. 

 We are at a significant resistance level on the daily time-frame. Momentum is not on my side and it's a risky trade, however, I think it may be worth having a punt as price repeatedly failed to trade higher throughout today's session forming a head and shoulders formation on the lower time-frames as depicted below.

  We saw Gold break-out to the highs today but the Aussie couldn't follow and this is a clear sign of selling pressure.  As this pattern has coincided with a big level and more importantly I can have a very tight pre-defined stop  I think the upside for this trade could make it worth the risk.  This is by no means a high-probability trade but if we get some downward momentum over night there will undoubtedly be some long profit-taking/covering.  

GBPUSD trade update.

Looking at Cable this evening we can see the trade that I entered at the beginning of the week has benefited from strong Risk-on sentiment in the markets today.  This was after a slightly negative overnight session in Asia which very nearly saw my trailing stop triggered at 1.5703 (the market traded down to the Bid at 1.5706 after the Chinese P.M.I figures were released. I have to acknowledge Lady Luck on this one! Though I definitely think it's about time she graced me with her presence!)  We can see on the 1 hr chart below that a strong rejection candle (signified with the Arrow) briefly piercing the bottom of the Trend Channel, before strong buying stepped-in and establishing the false break which went on to set the tone for the European session.  This would have been an excellent trading set-up if I had been awake to capitalize on it.

 
As you can see from the 2 charts above; I have now closed out my long GBP/USD trade for a respectable 1:3ish Risk Reward. My decision for closing stems from the clear rejection and loss of momentum determined by the hammer on the 1hr chart which has occurred at a significant previous support price level on the daily as well as trend channel on the 1hr (lesser importance). If I can get onside with this trade and some negative news emerges from Europe then it could have some legs.  The market seems to have priced in a positive resolution to the Greece debacle; so any News to the contrary could have real shock value along with the renewed concern over Portuguese yields.  So I think you could do worse than be short this market at the moment.